"Exchange rate"
The exchange rate of the USD Dollar with the Uruguayan Peso is also a factor to have into account. As real state is traded in USD, but locals ultimately earn in pesos, so when the peso is high then property prices go up measured in USD. Because they ultimately compare what a dollar is worth in the local economy.A friend that is Economist told me that Prices in Uruguay when measured in UY pesos after inflation is accounted are more or less constant. I would agree with this, since for example year ago properties were much cheaper than now, but the USD was around 30 pesos, and now is around 21, plus years of 7 percent inflation. In my humble opinion there is nothing like the bubbles seen in the north for the low - middle end range of property market, as mentioned here there is not so much credit available to produce it. For the high end Market, I hear there may be something going on in Punta del Este, probably people trying to do something with the printed paper called money. So I thint there are 3 factors for the low - middle end range of the market: -Dollar has fallen against USD -Inflation in Pesos affects the USD prices in which properties are nominated -Increased demand because continuous good economic climate since our last recession. As our exports seem to be doing well, there are USD dollars coming in. So it is a bad time to buy and a good one to sell if what you like is return in foreigh currency. At some point a small and indebted ecomomy such as us will suffer from some global downturn (May be some crash in Brazil, which may be overheating, who knows !!!) , this will mean some negative trade balance for Uruguay. When this happens the USD will appreciate against UY Peso, GDP reduces, and property prices measured in Dollars will decrease. This will be the time to buy. Time will tell when and how this will happen, and how severe the downturn wil be. I hope it will not be as bad as the last, right now..it worries me to find brazilians finding this country cheaper than theirs, when this happens it means the brazilian Real is high, Brazil has trade deficit, and at some point it will devaluate to protect their industry -and they will-, and this will mean trade deficit for us, recesion and after this UY peso devaluation. I think it will not happen tommorrow but may be in 2 years. The goverment is aiming to reduce the value of the peso, and I hope they will achieve it. This will be a better time to buy than now. But will this happens...who know..... |