'Presidential Primaries 2009' Politics

Elaine (1) from Ireland (Contact Member) - 06/01/09 10:57

I'd love to hear some thoughts on the candidates for the presidential primaries. I have read many articles and references which paint a picture that Astori is "THE" candidate and that if he doesn't get it a economic, social, political Armageddon may follow...

Is Astori really that much better than any of the other options? and if so, WHY?? Will he really make the changes needed in a country that to me seems like its been pretty stagnant for many years now?

I found this interesting article which warns about the possibility of populism winning out in this election..what are anybody else's thoughts on this issue?

• Failed Education Leading To Populism - Mercosur Press

Comment #1 Opinionated from Uruguay (Contact Member) - 06/01/09 11:34

I think Talvi's views essentially correct. Anyhow, I don't think Astori is THE candidate. His first two years as Minister of Economics were ok, but later on he played politics with the economy and spent all the surpluses.

Besides, why not Lacalle, for example? Only leftist candidates are those taken into account? For sure, the possibility of an administration presided by Mujica is --in my opinion-- pretty scary.

Comment #2 Elaine from Uruguay (Contact Member) - 06/01/09 11:40

What has Lacalle got to offer? What are his plans?

Do you think Astori being sick in hospital at the moment will effect people's perception of him and faith in him?

Comment #3 Opinionated from Uruguay (Contact Member) - 06/01/09 12:04

Astori was already a failure as a candidate way before he was hospitalized. Of course, being hospitalized only makes matters worse, but he had lost the primary before this situation - the polls show (and have been showing for many months) that Astori was behind Mujica for 15% approximately.

Any candidate, except Mujica, offer more or less (with different nuances) the same: respect for the rule of law, an open economy, respect for property rights, trying to have a balanced budget and trying to create an environment friendly to investments (either local or foreign).

Lacalle might have the "advantage" of his past experience as President. Thanks to Astori (among others) the next administration will need to apply unpopular policies like cutting spending and (probably) raising taxes. I don't foresee fiscal room for those "big" plans, except those which can rely on private investment

Comment #4 Patrick from Rural east Colonia departmento (Contact Member) - 06/15/09 20:17

Indeed. In my view Astori is rather too much a monochrome socialist and lacks the necessary charisma. Anyway, who could bring themselves to vote for a man who inflicted income tax on the nation? Hanging's too good for him :-)

I live in Blanco-land and here Lacalle seems to be the man of choice. Having listened to him speak and to tales of his past misdeeds, he might make a better emperor than prez but it seems to me that the economy needs a few tough choices taken at the moment and if nothing else, Lacalle has experience in doing just that. From a personal POV I like his views on easing up the persecution of tobacco addicts like myself :-)

I won't get to vote til I obtain citizenship but I'm enjoying the hustings as a spectator.

Patrick.

Comment #5 Elaine (1) from Ireland (Contact Member) - 06/29/09 09:44

You don't think Astori would have been capable of making those decisions? I heard he had some pretty ambitious plans with real methods as to how to achieve his goals for improved infrastructure.

I can't say I know much about Lacalle but I don't doubt he would be a million times better than Mujica!

Comment #6 Eric (204.95.48.91) - 07/02/09 22:49

I've read a several articles now where the writer "fears" a Mujica victory but I haven't heard any reason as to why. Could someone please enlighten those of us who aren't quite up to speed on the UY political scene?

Comment #7 Know-it-all from Montevideo (Contact Member) - 07/03/09 09:37

Eric let's just say that Uruguay is to the left enough as it is. If you give those sectors of society that do nothing anymore than they already get for free they'll start to rot in their own laziness and resignation.

Stereotypes are dangerous, but for the most part trying to get a Uruguayan to do an honest hard day's work with any shred of commitment is like pulling teeth. I saw Astori as having the potential to make some changes, I see Mujica as someone who will solidify this pattern for years to come - NOT what Uruguay needs.

Comment #8 Eric (204.95.48.91) - 07/03/09 17:17

Thanks. I've seen a lot of articles regarding the candidates but they seem to lack specifics of what their different platforms are. Your response sums it up very well!!

Comment #9 Juan (60.242.49.43) - 07/04/09 07:53

hi guys,

know it all from Montevideo, sorry I find your comments a tad offensive, I'm one of those Uruguayans you mention, and sorry to dissapoint you but I do work hard and I'm honest as well.

Like you said, stereotypes are dangerous...

Comment #10 Elaine (1) from Ireland (Contact Member) - 07/08/09 10:28

Hi Juan,

Maybe you could answer Eric's question better seeing as you are a Uruguayan...

Mujica appears to be very popular in the polls, but there is a definite feeling among certain parts of society that really don't want him to win, why do you think that is? What do you think he'd be like as a president?

I'd be really interested in getting the opinions of some locals on this topic...will you vote for Lacalle or Mujica next year? and why?

Comment #11 Elaine (1) from Ireland (Contact Member) - 07/09/09 11:26

Astori accepted the vice presidential spot?! Mujica and Astori on the same ticket...now there's an interesting combo!

Comment #12 Eric (204.95.48.91) - 07/10/09 23:28

Does the VP in UY carry any weight or is it basically a do nothing post as is the US (except for Dick Cheney!)?

Comment #13 Elaine (1) from Ireland (Contact Member) - 07/13/09 13:09

I think Vice President is a fairly non eventful role but still, these guys had such different policies when running in the primaries it seems like a crazy combination.

I guess Frente Amplio as trying to tone down the extremes now that they're facing Lacalle, bit of a non-sensical idea though as those who wanted Astori would never vote for Mujica and I really don't think those who avidly support Mujica are big fans of Astori.

I left a comment on a blog post about this...this blog has some pretty good articles (not all on Uruguayan politics but all relevant to the region)

Comment #14 Elaine (1) from Ireland (Contact Member) - 07/13/09 13:11

link didn't work...here is the blog:

• Small State Blog On Latin American Politics

Comment #15 Patrick from Rural east Colonia departmento (Contact Member) - 08/11/09 17:56

I reckon Astori was chosen to give Pepe an air of respectability and to help him find a suit that fits him before his meeting with Lula. He isn't exactly a snappy dresser :-)

I met Pepe a couple of years ago and liked him. OTOH he's allegedly good pals with the Kirchner kleptocracy across the river in Argentina and he keeps dropping hints about land "redistribution" so I find the prospect of Prez Pepe a little alarming as he doesn't give us details of his radical proposals

Patrick.

Comment #16 Elaine (1) from Ireland (Contact Member) - 08/12/09 06:30

But is being a "nice guy" what Uruguay needs as their President? There are plenty of "nice guys" or next-door neighbour types out there but that doesn't make them fit for leading the country where it needs to go.

I have never met lovely Pepe, nor have I spoken to anyone who has so I cannot say I "know" him, but I very much doubt his ability to steer Uruguay onwards and upwards.

Astori on the other hand (or OTOH as you would say!) seems prepared, he has a plan, he has goals, he seems driven, I think he could actually executes to some changes, some positive advances....but in the empty role of vice president I don't think he has any power to implement these big projects which is a pity.

Comment #17 Patrick from Rural east Colonia departmento (Contact Member) - 08/13/09 16:51

Just because I like someone personally doesn't mean that I'd support him/her as Prez :-)

After the primaries Astori isn't a presidential candidate so the choice is between Pepe and Lacalle. The Colorados are fielding a charasmatic candidate but he's so far behind in the polls that he can be ruled out. His support has risen from 7% to 10% over recent months.

Unless there is a clear winner (50% plus) there will be a run off election but unless the Colorado voters move en masse to support Lacalle we'll have President Pepe for 5 years.

There again, it may not be so bad as there were lots of dire predictions when Tabare Vazquez won for FA 5 years ago but it didn't turn out too badly.

I'd agree that the ROU needs an administration which encourages small business and cuts some of the futile time comsuming red tape but as a non-voter I'm just a spectator this time.

Comment #18 Alberto (200.40.86.90) - 09/25/09 13:43

Folks, you may be looking at the static picture, cause you lack the passed story of the candidates. Pepe is an ex-gerrillero, he fought for a socialist revolution in the 60iess decade; fourty years before today, and twenty years before the fall of the Soviet Union. He, and most of the Frente Amplio, has gone through ideologic revewing since that, and I don't think they differ too much from their european Socialist coleegues, or the Chilean or Brasilian Left parties. All of which, instead of trying to build a Socialist or Comunist society, are just trying to build a more modern Capitalism, with a little more of social sensitivity. Pepe won't go in any other direction than that. Lacalle has much more recent background. He was has his 5-year term as President in the 90s. He's a neo-liberal (in the Latinamerican sense, that is a pure lessez faire-lessez passer, kind of thought). He comes from the agro-bussiness traditional burgeousie, and has an instinctive alergia against anything related to social policies... including poor people itself. His Gov, was marked for sound corruption affairs. Specially relating to Uruguay as a financial loundry, and the privatization of some banks to some very inconvenient people who ended runing away with the people's funds some year later, during the 2002 financial crisis.

Comment #19 Elaine (1) from Ireland (Contact Member) - 09/28/09 08:18

Thanks for sharing Alberto, its always interesting to hear things from a Uruguayan perspective.

It was never that I thought Mujica was going to start some sort of socialist revolution, I just really doubt his ability to move the country forward in any way....I feel like if we're lucky he MIGHT be able to maintain things at the same standard. Obviously government is more than just the president, but in the end he is the one who chooses who goes where, he gets a very important input in policy-making and shaping the agenda of the government...and he represents Uruguay to the outside world (and therefore potential market and trade partners)

Do you think Mujica would actually be a good leader? He just doesn't seem to have it in him...he says something troublesome and inappropriate every day - is that really the person you want to have representing you?!

Comment #20 Patrick from Rural east Colonia departmento (Contact Member) - 09/28/09 12:02

We'll have to wait and see what Pepe does.

My wealthier neighbours seem terrified at the prospect of presidente Pepe but ISTR that they were equally terrified by the prospect of presidente Tabare.

You never can tell how a new leader will turn out until after the event. Years ago I attended the inauguration of Mary Robinson (former prez of Ireland) and if hostility could kill, the assembled politicians and clergy would have frazzled her on the spot yet she transformed Ireland in spite of having no executive powers at all.

Recently, I met Pepe again and in spite of his new posh clothes, I can't help liking the man... but that has little bearing on whether he'll make a good prez.

Comment #21 Lili (70.130.205.90) - 11/05/09 09:07

"something else to mention"

Im not sure if someone mentioned what Mujica did as a guerrillero but it is kinda obvious, he killed civilians and police. It is documented in newspapers from that time so it is not like someone made it up. You can find it in youtube.com too. It is scary the way his wife talks about the "executions" they had to do, that video is in youtube.com also. Everyone who supports him says "oh but he paid for what he did", well yes he was 13 years in jail, is that enough? he tried to escape several times and he doesnt show he's repented. Both candidates are awful, Im not in Uruguay but I feel the stress everyone in Uruguay is going through. It is a tough decision, both are bad. But Mujica is worse I think, he keeps changing his mind on important stuff. I dont like Lacalle but I would vote him if I had to.

Comment #22 Patrick from Rural east Colonia departmento (Contact Member) - 11/05/09 09:32

"something else to mention"

Indeed... but looking across the world its not uncommon for leaders to have a terrorist/freedom fighter past.

Unless he commits some dreadful faux pas between now and the run-off election, I reckon that Pepe win win so we'll just have to grin and bear it.

I just hope that because I own a smaller chacra than Pepe, I'll be spared his proposed land redistribution :-)

Comment #23 Elaine (1) from Ireland (Contact Member) - 11/06/09 05:45

"Presidential Elections"

I wouldn't be SO sure that Pepe will win, I think it could be very close. The first round saw Pepe get 48%, Lacalle with 29%, Bordaberry nearly 17% and the Independent Party (2.5%) Bordaberry has since pledged his support for Lacalle and his Colorado supporters seem to be enthusiastic in following his lead. That brings Pepe and Lacalle almost even and the Independents have refused to back anyone. It could be a very close race.

Either way, I think both candidates have made their mistakes, and both have their flaws and I imagine would make decisions for the country that I don't agree with...then again I'm not Uruguay and don't have a say. I still believe that Astori would have been the best President for Uruguay at this stage in their development, so I will wait in hope that if Pepe wins Astori will play a big role in influencing his decisions.

In the end it could all be worse...the Presidential term is only 5 years - look at Europe, we have just passed an irreversible Lisbon Treaty that sold all our souls permanently to a faceless bureaucracy *sob*

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